Sunday, February 3, 2013

Batten Down the Hatches...maybe

Yesterday I enjoyed a nice little walk sans snow, in fact there was not a bank, flake, nor ball of the stuff to be found anywhere.  This morning...serious flakage.  In fact it looks kind of purdy out there.  And as par for the course here on the very edge of the world the weather wizards are predicting dire warnings of snow, wind, and blizzard conditions.  It may, or may not, happen.  This is winter number three of me living here and so far I have discovered that the weather people are even more out to lunch on this end of the country than they were on the far west side.

Just thought I would put a picture in to contrast the one from the day before where I took the picture of the tree which was blown down.  (Tree has been cleaned up and dragged away.  But you can still see the broken stump on the right where it had come from.)  

Typically they predict severe winter conditions, and the sun comes out, the temperatures warm up, and the birds sing a happy tune.  Then they predict sunshine and happiness, the clouds move in, the rain begins to fall, and the birds sit in the trees with frowny beaks.  In no other profession then perhaps politics can you be so fracked up and still keep your job.

Which brings me to my point.  They are predicting storms of the apocalyptic magnitude for this area in the next couple of days.  There is a pretty good chance we may end up going out sunbathing, but in the mean time we will be battening down the hatches, filling the feeder with birdseed, pulling out our winter garments, and looking for the sunblock.

Wish us luck, we may, or may not, need it. 


  1. Not to be too pissy about it but the world of weather forecasting is *extremely* difficult. The sheer amount of variables that need to be considered (and or best guessed about) make for large degrees of uncertainty. If you want an accurate forecast don't ask them for information beyond a day or two in the future. Outside of that there are simply too many things they cannot take into account. However, this one is the key. Be honest. How many times have you complained when the forecast was bang on. How many times are you even likely to have noticed? We're a little bit anal about keeping records here and the truth is that accuracy in the short term is pretty damned good while the medium and long term is a crapshoot. Avoid the anecdotal approach and test your theory. Keep track for a couple of weeks or a month and see how accurate the next day, next couple of days, next week forecasts turn out. I'd be curious to see how that experience turns out.

    My guess is that being out on a peninsula like you are makes it *way* harder to get accurate forecasts because things can change quite suddenly and drastically. Meenwhile in our neck of the woods (as an example) the temprature forecasts (and for the most part of the actual conditions too) have been accurate to within a degree or two. At the same time we have to acknowledge that we are in a freakish little micro-climate here and will often get little or none of the precip called for while thirty clicks away it happens exactly as predicted.

    I think I'll start testing accuracy on this scale this'll be interesting to me, to see how they score.

    1. I hope you aren't trying to take away my right to bitch about the weather. As you know it is every Canadian's right, nay duty, to bitch about the weather. As for, facts...well I say nananaboozki to them. If the Sasquatch/Baby Jesus/UFOologists can disregard in your face, black and white, scientific evidence without even a by your leave, well then by gum so can I!

  2. Ah...well, when you put it that way I must surely cede yer dog given right to cuss out them weather varmints for not getting themselves their forecasts die-rektly from Baby Jeebus hizself!